Managing Uncertainty: Risk Management in Acquisition

Abstract

Abstract : The defense acquisition system may be improved through tough, sometimes controversial, decision making based on risk. Three areas of risk management will be examined in the form of good projections of technology maturation, achievable requirements, and producibility. Technology maturation risk will examine the technologies being pursued by major defense acquisition programs and whether the available technologies were underdeveloped at Milestone B based on technology readiness levels (TRL). The requirements investigation will examine how well the program was able to define requirements, map requirements against achievable near term technology, and keep requirements from expanding beyond the core set needed for the (what many refer to as mission creep). Producibility risk, defined as the ability to produce end items within the projected cost and schedule, will be examined in terms of overall program cost and schedule growth or program restructurings. Some major defense acquisition programs as case examples will be examined to determine influencing factors that affect program acquisition that are beyond the ability of the program office to control. Recommendations are included for areas of further study.