Managing uncertainty in time-critical plan evaluation

Abstract

In complex real-world domains, uncertainty in predicting the results of plan execution drives the evaluation component of the planning cycle to explore a combinatorial explosion of alternative futures. This evaluation component is critical in evaluating the feasibility, strengths and weaknesses of a proposed plan. In time critical situations the planner is thus faced with a trade-off between timeliness and evaluation completion. Furthermore, a human planner is faced with the additional problem of evaluation credibility when using fast automatic evaluation in a complex and uncertain domain. An approach to handling these problems of time-criticality, uncertainty, and credibility is explored using the wargaming component of the military operational planning cycle. The Semi-Automated Forces Wargamer has been developed using two techniques. The first technique integrates procedural representations of plans and intentions with heuristic representations of simulated probabilistic execution. This facilitates the simulated execution of plans with multiple worlds corresponding to the possible results of actions taken in the real and uncertain world. The second provides a what-if capability via a tree representation of the possible combat outcomes. This provides the user with a tool for intelligent and focussed exploration of the space of possible outcomes to the plan. These techniques combine to generate a manageable and useful subset of the space of simulated plan results from which the user can apply human expertize to guide plan exploration.