Managing the Risks of Negative Interest Rates

Abstract

The acceleration in the issuance of government debt since the global financial crisis has led central bankers to engineer interest rates that are historically low in nominal terms and consistently lower than inflation rates. Although the ostensible aim of this policy is to stimulate economic growth, maintaining negative real rates also goes a long way so that government debt is manageable and will decline in the long run, relative to the size of the economy. Financial institutions hold the great majority of government debt, and their books of retail and corporate loans are expanding briskly at a time when ultra-low interest rates make borrowing especially attractive. Rates paid on deposits are low, in advanced economies, even negative in the euro zone in nominal terms. That helps to offset the reduction in income that banks earn on their lending. Even so, the extreme and unique conditions resulting from persistent negative real interest rates mean that banks must take particular care to manage their interest-rate risk in the context of other risk types and the banks’ profit-and-loss analysis.