Managing the phaseout of coal power: A comparison of power decarbonization pathways in Jilin Province

Abstract

With the periodic goals of reaching carbon emission peak before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 (“dual carbon” goals), China shows its unprecedented determination to coal power phaseout. This research takes Jilin Province to showcase possible pathways of coal power units’ phaseout on provincial level. We set up four different coal power phaseout scenarios, under which their transition cost and effectiveness would be calculated, respectively. In terms of natural resource endowment and electricity demand, Jilin Province would achieve a complete coal power phaseout by 2045 or even by 2040. However, after assessing the effectiveness of power transition under the four coal development scenarios, we found out that the transition costs for the earlier coal power phaseout scenario is CNY 6–47 billion lower than the normal coal power retirement scenario. In addition, after 2040, compared to the normal coal power retirement scenario, the average unit cost of electricity generation for the coal power earlier phaseout scenario is 11–40 CNY/MWh higher. However, the earlier coal power phaseout scenario would save 168 to 220 million tons of coal and reduce 449 – 614 million tons of CO2 emissions, significantly better than the normal coal power retirement scenario. Therefore, a clean transition and achieving the “dual carbon” goal requires a practical course of action that fully considers the power transition's cost-effectiveness and reasonably spreads the transition costs by improving the design of the electricity market mechanism.