Managing the effects of extreme sub-daily rainfall and flash floods-a practitioner's perspective.

Abstract

Extreme sub-daily rainfall affects flooding in the UK and urban pollution management. Water utilities in the UK need to understand the characteristics of this rainfall, and how it may change in the future in order to plan for and manage these impacts. There is also significant interest from infrastructure owners and urban authorities exposed to flood risk from short-period, intense rainfall events. This paper describes how UK flood risk guidance incorporates allowances for climate change and how recent research using convection-permitting climate models is helping to inform this guidance. The guidance documents are used by engineers and scientists in the modelling of sewer networks, smaller river catchments and urban drainage areas and provide values to 'uplift' rainfall event data used as model inputs to reflect climate change model projections. With an increasing focus on continuous simulation modelling using time series rainfall, research into adjusting time series data to reflect future rainfall characteristics in convection-permitting climate models is discussed. Other knowledge gaps for practitioners discussed are the potential changing shape (profile) of future rainfall events and future changes in antecedent wetness conditions. The author explains the challenge of developing simple and effective guidance for practitioners from the complex scientific output. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.