Managing the atomic divorce: The challenges of East Central Europe’s nuclear energy decoupling from Russia

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has accelerated Europe’s decoupling from Russia in the energy sphere. Nuclear energy is no exception. Most East Central European countries traditionally reliant on Russian nuclear technologies and services are diversifying away from Rosatom to seek alternative vendors. This paper analyzes the difficulties and risks associated with the decoupling process. Despite a range of apparently available options, East Central European countries pursuing decoupling may struggle to find both technically competent and (geo)politically viable nuclear energy vendors to fulfill their new-build, maintenance, and fuel supply needs – a concerning scenario given the importance of nuclear energy to the energy security and decarbonization agenda of the region and wider Europe. Avoiding this scenario requires efforts from all actors. First, Western vendors must improve their capacity to deliver viable reactor designs as well as competitive fuel and maintenance services to the region’s existing reactors. Second, regional nuclear industry stakeholders must further develop local expertise and equipment manufacturing capacity while exploring non-Western vendor options. Last but not least, local and international political actors must reduce their interference in the technical and commercial process of vendor selection so as not to exclude the most competent suppliers based on their country of origin.