Managing Surprises in Complex Systems: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Resilience

Abstract

One only need access the news media to become aware of an apparently neverending string of surprises. Some surprises are financial, such as the sharp decline in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets or the increase in the cost of crude oil. Other surprises include the impacts of hurricanes or the collapse of renewable resource stocks. Holling (1986) defined a surprise as “a condition in which perceived reality departs qualitatively from expectations.” Many of our 21st Century surprises are a consequence of living in an increasingly connected world that is increasingly complex as well.