Managing Relative Decline: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of the 2012 US Defense Strategic Guidance

Abstract

The Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG), released by the White House in January 2012, was widely acknowledged as the most significant reassessment of America's strategic posture in a decade. Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense is not simply a response to systemic-level threats and interests, but reflected principles best articulated by neoclassical realism (NCR). By examining systemic, domestic, and elite influences affecting the United States in 2012, this article demonstrates that the DSG illustrates the core principles of neoclassical realism. The strategy reflected the Obama administration's filtration of systemic-level imperatives through elite perceptions and domestic politics. The DSG is realist because it sought foremost to address systemic challenges, including American relative decline. It is neoclassical realist because the strategy was markedly influenced by elite perceptions and domestic politics, resulting in deliberate gambles. Neorealism continues to have great value explaining systemic trends, but it cannot explain the specific foreign policies of individual states. NCR provides a way to retain the most effective analytical features of neorealism while incorporating the influence of domestic politics and elite perceptions on state policy-making. Neoclassical realism is a promising theoretical framework for foreign policy analysis, but further testing and refining is needed to ensure that it retains its descriptive accuracy and predictive capability.