Abstract
After an emergency event (EE) happens, emergency decision making (EDM) is a common and effective way to deal with the emergency situation, which plays an important role in mitigating its level of harm. In the real world, it is a big challenge for an individual emergency manager (EM) to make a proper and comprehensive decision for coping with an EE. Consequently, many practical EDM problems drive group emergency decision making (GEDM) problems whose main limitations are related to the lack of flexibility in knowledge elicitation, disagreements in the group and the consideration of experts’ psychological behavior in the decision process. Hence, this paper proposes a novel GEDM approach that allows more flexibility for preference elicitation under uncertainty, provides a consensus process to avoid disagreements and considers experts’ psychological behavior by using the fuzzy TODIM method based on prospect theory. Eventually, a group decision support system (GDSS) is developed to support the whole GEDM process defined in the proposed method demonstrating its novelty, validity and feasibility.
Highlights
Emergencies are defined as events that suddenly take place, causing or having the possibility of provoking intense death and injury, property loss, ecological damage and social hazards.In recent years, various emergency events, such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, terrorist attacks, etc., have exerted severely negative impacts on human life and socio-economic development.When an emergency event (EE) occurs, Emergency Decision Making (EDM) is typically characterized by at least uncertainty, time pressure, and lack of information, resulting in potentially serious consequences [1]
TODIM method was proposed by Gomes and Lima [36,37]; it is a popular multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method based on prospect theory [13] considering humans psychological behavior
In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed Group EDM (GEDM) method, this section presents an example adapted from a big explosion of Tianjin Port that occurred in the north of China (Background Information Source. http://www.safehoo.com/Case/Case/Blow/201602/428723.shtml)
Summary
Emergencies are defined as events that suddenly take place, causing or having the possibility of provoking intense death and injury, property loss, ecological damage and social hazards. Experts might hesitate and express their opinions or assessments by using different types of different types of information toand theircriteria knowledge and criteria nature.ofThe complexity of information according to theiraccording knowledge nature. It seems necessary and reasonable to among all experts involved in the GEDM problem before making the decision. To allow more flexibility for eliciting information by dealing with non-homogeneous information paper is to propose a new GEDM method that overcomes them. Such a method is able: including hesitancy. 3. To take into account experts’ psychological behavior by means of the fuzzy TODIM method [16,17,18] based on prospect theory [14].
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