Managing multi-granular probabilistic linguistic information in large-scale group decision making: A personalized individual semantics-based consensus model

Abstract

The multi-granular probabilistic linguistic modeling allows decision makers to express cognitive information using multiple linguistic term sets based on their preferences. However, personalized individual semantics (PIS) can lead to different meanings of the same word within the linguistic context. To address this issue and manage consensus in large-scale group decision making, this study proposes a decision framework that employs multi-granular probabilistic linguistic preference relations (MGPLPRs). First, a transformation method is presented to unify different granularity levels of MGPLPRs, thus ensuring the consistency of granularity. Moreover, a consistency-driven optimization model is constructed to generate the numerical scales with PIS for different experts. Thereafter, a two-stage consensus reaching process (CRP) is developed, including both within-cluster and across-cluster CRP, to achieve group consensus. The experts’ original weights are derived from a social network, taking into account the trust relationships among them. A dynamic weighting mechanism is used to update the experts’ weights based on their contributions to group consensus, which better reflects the actual situation than fixed weights. The proposed method is exemplified through a case study of assessing and selecting campus surveillance measures for COVID-19. Finally, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework are verified through comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis.