Abstract

Liquidity is a risk factor of primary relevance that can significantly affect the asset allocation decisions of investors. In this paper, we introduce the concept of portfolio staleness and propose a simple framework to manage portfolio liquidity, intended as the cost needed to liquidate the portfolio. Within this framework, the traditional minimum variance problem is solved under the additional constraint that portfolio staleness must be smaller than a given threshold. We show that a dynamic asset allocation strategy based on the staleness constrained portfolio can significantly enhance portfolio liquidity over the standard minimum variance solution. Meanwhile, the increase in portfolio risk is limited, generating large liquidity gains per unit of risk.

Highlights

  • The Markowitz (1952) mean–variance framework is at the core of modern asset allocation

  • Idle time provides information on the extent of liquidity of an asset, and it is related to both transaction costs and absence of volume (Bandi et al 2020). We extend this notion to a portfolio of assets by defining the concept of portfolio staleness: on a given day, portfolio staleness is computed as the weighted average of assets’ idle times, using the corresponding portfolio weights

  • Building upon the interpretation of idle time as an illiquidity proxy, we introduced the concept of portfolio staleness and showed that it can be effectively used to manage liquidity in a standard minimum-variance framework

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Summary

Introduction

The Markowitz (1952) mean–variance framework is at the core of modern asset allocation. This measure has several attractive features: (a) is easy to compute, as idle time solely requires data on transaction prices to be implemented; (b) has a clear economic interpretation, as idle time can be regarded as an illiquidity proxy within a model of price formation with transaction costs and asymmetric information; (c) being idle time a probability, it naturally ranges between zero and one, allowing to compare and rank portfolios Building upon these considerations, our first contribution is to propose a tractable framework where the liquidity dimension is integrated into the portfolio selection problem.

Framework
Portfolio allocation model
Covariance matrix estimation
Estimating the probability of stale prices
Portfolio staleness constraint
Empirical analysis
In-sample analysis
Out-of-sample analysis
Robustness check: comparison with other liquidity measures
Conclusions
Full Text
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