Abstract
This chapter presents a reliability study for an offshore jacket structure with emphasis on the features of nonconventional modeling. Firstly, a random set model is formulated for modeling the random waves in an ocean site. Then, a jacket structure is investigated in a pushover analysis to identify the critical wave direction and key structural elements. This is based on the ultimate base shear strength. The selected probabilistic models are adopted for the important structural members and the wave direction is specified in the weakest direction of the structure for a conservative safety analysis. The wave height model is processed in a P-box format when it is used in the numerical analysis. The models are applied to find the bounds of the failure probabilities for the jacket structure. The propagation of this wave model to the uncertainty in results is investigated in both an interval analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results are compared in context of information content and numerical accuracy. Further, the failure probability bounds are compared with the conventional probabilistic approach.
Highlights
Reliable estimation of extreme values of wave height is an important prerequisite to the design of coastal and offshore structures [1, 2]
The data used in this study is downloaded from National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) for buoy 46029, which is located in the west of Columbia River Mouth
The random set approach proposed in this study provides a general characterization rule in quantifying the statistical uncertainties associated with the Peak over Threshold (POT) model
Summary
Reliable estimation of extreme values of wave height is an important prerequisite to the design of coastal and offshore structures [1, 2]. The wave height, which is a major factor in the wave load, is believed to be time-varying and can be significantly different under different climate conditions [19] These variations can be caused by a wide range of factors such as interseasonal changes, interannual changes, and interdecadal changes [20]. The main focus of this study is to investigate the uncertainties in wave height modeling and its application in offshore engineering. The random sets theory is emphasized to formulate an imprecise probability model for the extremes by using a set of thresholds.
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