Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation1

Abstract

This paper looks at how violent ethnic conflicts are managed. The paper separates ethnic civil wars from the more general class of ethnic conflicts. More specifically, we examine these conflicts, and seek to understand the extent to which mediation can play an effective role in managing such conflicts, and which factors have the most impact on its performance and effectiveness. We set up a theoretical framework from which we derive several propositions on mediation effectiveness. These are analyzed using an original data set of over 900 mediation cases in ethnic civil wars. The analysis suggests that the use of a neutral mediation site and initiation by both parties in the war each enhance the likelihood of mediation success. Conflict intensity, third-party initiation and superpower mediation all decrease the likelihood of success. Ethnic civil wars over issues of secessionism and autonomy are also found to be more difficult to mediate than ethnic civil wars over issues of religion.