Abstract

Effective management of cotton production logistics (CPL) against volatile environmental conditions while maintaining product quality and yield at acceptable costs has become challenging due to increasing global population and consumption and climate change. In CPL, the harvesting, processing, and storage of cotton are all linked, prone to various environmental risks (e.g., flooding) and operational risks (e.g., excess spraying of pesticides). Thus, it is crucial for a resilient and sustainable supply chain management to prioritize risks and chart suitable risk response strategies. For a CPL, we employ a system dynamics (SD) approach to investigate the likelihoods of environmental and operational risks and their impacts in four dimensions: variable costs, fixed costs, quality performance, and yield. Using the case of a textile company in Turkey, we demonstrate an end-to-end framework for mitigating CPL risks. SD simulation results show that increases in seed prices and machine and equipment breakdowns are the risks that most affect the unit cost, whereas pests and plant diseases most hurt cotton harvest yield. Via scenario analyses, we demonstrate that a proper risk response strategy, compared to doing nothing, may reduce variance in cotton quality by about 35% at the expense of about an 11% increase in unit cost variability.

Highlights

  • Unsustainable production methods risk future capacities: agriculture is no exception

  • As our salient contributions, (i) we via analyze, an system dynamics (SD) modelling approach, the ofeffects responses to risks that may occur during we employ an integrated textile of responses to risks that may occur during cotton production logistics (CPL) operations, (ii) we employ an integrated example onexample two essential performance criteria: cost criteria: and quality, we provide bywe a case studybyofa textile supply chains (SCs)

  • SCs are largely exposed to very similar risks: according to [6], among others, 34% of SC interruptions result from processes within the company itself, 15% from suppliers, 13% from customers, 4% from nature, 4% from governments, and 6% from the chain relationships

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Summary

Introduction

Unsustainable production methods risk future capacities: agriculture is no exception. It is important to develop an effective risk management policy in SCM. To maintain future capacity, required are more sustainable and storage methods, whereby risks are proactively managed This remains an exigent and cotton production and storage methods, whereby risks are proactively managed. This challenging task [5]. Both the environmental risks such as risks such as drought and the operational risks such as labor shortage determine the overall quality, drought and the operational risks such as labor shortage determine the overall quality, yield, and yield, and cost of the CPL This to the body of literature on supply chain risk management wherebywhereby system.

Literature Review
Research and Case Study Background
Case Study and Related Parameters
Risk Identifications and Measurement
System Dynamics Model and Initial Conditions
Model Variables and Relational Equations
Risk Assessments and Risk Prioritization
Risk Assessments
Risk Response Scenarios
Findings
Concluding Remarks
Full Text
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