Managing complex situations through Cynefin method

Abstract

This paper examines the methods of corporate management of complex situations in which planning is impossible. The authors have been using and developing the Cynefin method for more than 5 years to deal with complex situations in Russian companies. The article presents the concept of a managerial situation and its various types, such as: obvious, complicated, complex and chaotic. The Cynefin method based on the Cynefin framework (by David Snowden), is applied to support decision-making in difficult situations. The authors describe five steps of its execution, its features, capabilities and limitations. The article also provides an example of practical application of the method in the context of import substitution in the field of software on the Russian market. The paper shows that the method works well in complex and chaotic management situations in which the management cycle is more like the Boyd OODA cycle (Observe — observation, Orient — orientation, Decide — decision, Act — action). The use of the Cynefin method is redundant in obvious and complicated situations where the management cycle is more like the PDCA Deming cycle (Plan — planning, Do — execution, Check — checking, Act — impact and adjustment). Finally, the authors hypothesize the increasing importance of the Cynefin method due to the increasing scale and complexity of corporate projects related to import substitution and digital transformation, especially in the context of increasing uncertainty in the market environment.