Managing a political crisis after a disaster: how concern assessment can address the political aspects involved in framing a solution

Abstract

The risk framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council includes a ‘concern assessment’ in parallel to the more conventional risk assessment. This factor in risk analysis has had a low profile, but this paper argues that it could be a vital factor in managing a political crisis in reaction to a disaster. The Dutch Government’s ‘Risk and Responsibility’ programme focuses on the tendency of politicians to resort too easily to over-regulation as a response to disasters and the use of concern assessment could provide a way of providing a political analysis of the issues involved. Responses to disasters require good risk analysis, but when there is high public anxiety as a result of the incident then that anxiety is itself an issue, especially for politicians, and requires a different approach than a technical, evidence-based rational analysis. The anxiety is a combination of concerns and requires both analysis and assessment. The anxiety may be an integral part of the main issue or may develop into a parallel issue. Politicians need to understand the nature and strengths of the concerns and consider them alongside more technical recommendations for action. The paper proposes that the concern assessment should lead to a concern response, which should be a political value statement. Rather than announcing a process or a solution, the political value statement should respond directly to the concerns expressed through the public’s anxiety and identify the main values or outcomes that any solution should provide.