Managing a High Uncertainty Scenario through a Real Option Assessment: Evidence from a Copper Concentrate Trader

Abstract

Commodity markets are highly volatile markets where uncertainty management is critical for success. Certain commodities, such as copper concentrates, experience even higher levels of volatility and uncertainty. This is fundamentally due to the absence of a reference market that allows for a transparent price discovery, along with many factors affecting the price and trade of any commodity. Traders also lack the possibility of fully hedging their exposure to copper concentrate prices as there is no derivative market directly available for the commodity. Consequently, this paper analyses the copper concentrate trading business resorting to the Real Options methodology to assess the high volatility and uncertainty which dominates in this area of commodity markets. The results obtained indicate that this method can be applied by copper concentrate traders to separate the price uncertainty from their business operative and financial planning for the future. This provides them with a reliable tool to lower the level of uncertainty affecting their long-term goals, as well as keeping the risk that they are taking under control. It also gives them higher managerial flexibility.