Abstract
An effective and competitive investment policy requires improvements to the existing tools. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis requires understanding as to how the recovery processes should be implemented. This study aims to develop a model for determining the autonomous expenditure multiplier (AEM) values, considering the investment accelerator action. The scientific novelty consists of proving that the AEM is not only an effects enhancer of the government and private investment, but also a tool to specify on the regional industrial map of Russia where investment projects will allow significant economic growth. The work’s practical significance consists of determining the possibility of applying the AEM as a tool to improve investment efficiency. The key research method was paired linear regression analysis. Based on the developed model, the AEM values for the economies of the five Central Federal District regions are calculated. Additionally, authors provide an explanation on how AEM values correlate to regional economic specialization. For example, atypically low AEM values for Moscow can be explained by high daily workforce movement among Moscow and the Moscow region. The information support difficulties of the proposed model are defined, and the directions to overcome them are proposed. Empirical results show significant differences in the AEM values of the researched regions, and that the AEM as a management tool for interregional investment distribution will help to invest the limited resources of both the state and private businesses more effectively. Additionally, authors establish that the achieved results fall in line with real macroeconomic situations within the regions, which proves that the proposed model reflects real world processes. Primary beneficiaries and end users of the study are government agencies, state-owned corporations, and members of broader scientific community.
Highlights
The modern Russian economy is going through a rather difficult stage of its development
The study shows that multiplicative chains and the investment accelerator action supporting their development form different-scale recurring components that allow us to model the interaction between the autonomous expenditure multiplier (AEM) and the investment accelerator as a self-similar, fractal process
The AEM application as a management tool for interregional investment distribution will overcome the regional polarization of investment
Summary
The modern Russian economy is going through a rather difficult stage of its development. Its complexity lies in the simultaneous action of several powerful factors that negatively affect the dynamics of the economic development of the Russian Federation (The World Bank 2021). These include social, political, and economic factors. At the end of 2020, oil prices resumed their growth, but the trend of the world economy decarbonization (political factor), expressed in practice in the development of electric transport and solar and wind energy, along with the planned introduction of a hydrocarbon import tax in the European Union in 2022, poses a serious barrier to the further growth of oil prices (Aylor et al 2020). The equal barrier is shale production (technological factor), which becomes more active when oil prices rise above USD 40 per barrel and, creates conditions for a further decline in oil prices (Ali et al 2022)
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