Management of Coastline Variability in an Endangered Island Environment: The Case of Noirmoutier Island (France)

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This article presents a diachronic study of evolution along the coastline of Noirmoutier Island in France, a sandy shore particularly susceptible to erosion and submersion risks, which are exacerbated by climate change due to two-thirds of its territory being below sea level. The study is based on an analysis of aerial images covering a period of 72 years, divided into five distinct periods: 1950–1974, 1974–1992, 1992–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2022. The methodology used combines two complementary approaches: the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) for taking linear measurements of the erosion and accretion that have taken place along various shorelines, and the surface method to evaluate the amount of surface lost or gained between different shorelines while calculating the uncertainties associated with the obtained results. The overall trend observed between 1950 and 2022 indicates that the Noirmoutier coastline studied has gained surface area (81 hectares) at an average rate of +0.57 ± 0.06 m per year. The article then presents an application of the method developed by Durand and Heurtefeux in 2006 to estimate the future position of the shoreline. A map of the local area is also provided, identifying the areas susceptible to coastal erosion by 2052 and by 2122, in accordance with the provisions of the Climate and Resilience Law adopted in France on 22 August 2021. The results reveal that there are many sources of uncertainty in predicting the future evolution of the shoreline using this methodology. Therefore, it is crucial to consider these uncertainties when planning future coastal management actions and adopting appropriate adaptation methods to counteract unforeseen developments.