Management and planning of water resources allocation at the scenario analysis using system dynamics model: A case study on Yamchi dam basin, Iran

Abstract

In recent years, the growing population and the need to supply water for domestic, and health, and agriculture sectors have led to the establishment of industrial centers in developing countries. The onset of drought in most countries has challenged surface water, groundwater, dams, and reservoirs. Iran is among those countries, which is located in a dry and semi-arid region. These factors made managers and decision-makers in this field make appropriate rules and regulations for the use of limited water resources. In this paper, the Vensim dynamic model was applied to properly exploit the Yamchi Dam water and groundwater resources in the Ardabil plain in Iran and allocate these resources in the agriculture, industry, and drinking sectors. By defining different scenarios, it was found that pressurized irrigation and changing the crop pattern scenarios are the most appropriate options for water management in the Yamchi basin. In this scenario, known as G in the model, 62% of the network lands are moved from traditional flood to pressurized irrigation with an irrigation efficiency of 60%. Accordingly, the reliability of the agricultural and drinking water supply will reach 92 and 99%, respectively. Meanwhile, due to saving the water resources, the water infiltration caused by irrigation will be greatly reduced, and the land swamping will be prevented.