Mammals, wildlife trade, and the next global pandemic

Abstract

Most new infectious diseases emerge when pathogens transfer from animals to humans.1,2 The suspected origin of the COVID pandemic in a wildlife wet market has resurfaced debates on the role of wildlife trade as a potential source of emerging zoonotic diseases.3-5 Yet there are no studies quantitatively assessing zoonotic disease risk associated with wildlife trade. Combining data on mammal species hosting zoonotic viruses and mammals known to be in current and future wildlife trade,6 we found that one-quarter (26.5%) of the mammals in wildlife trade harbor 75% of known zoonotic viruses, a level much higher than domesticated and non-traded mammals. The traded mammals also harbor distinct compositions of zoonotic viruses and different host reservoirs from non-traded and domesticated mammals. Furthermore, we highlight that primates, ungulates, carnivores, and bats represent significant zoonotic disease risks as they host 132 (58%) of 226 known zoonotic viruses in present wildlife trade, whereas species of bats, rodents, and marsupials represent significant zoonotic disease risks in future wildlife trade. Thus, the risk of carrying zoonotic diseases is not equal for all mammal species in wildlife trade. Overall, our findings strengthen the evidence that wildlife trade and zoonotic disease risks are strongly associated, and that mitigation measures should prioritize species with the highest risk of carrying zoonotic viruses. Curbing the sales of wildlife products and developing principles that support the sustainable and healthy trade of wildlife could be cost-effective investments given the potential risk and consequences of zoonotic outbreaks.