Abstract
We analyze Malthus'(1798) model when labor demand shifts persistently. The Malthu- sian ideas are formalized and derived in terms of stationarity and cointegration, and the implied restrictions are tested against English pre-industrial data 1560-1760. The evidence suggests a negligible marginal productivity eect of population on real income, implying that the Malthusian check relations should be analyzed as cointegrating relations. The data support highly signi…cant preventive checks working via marriages, but weak (in- signi…cant) positive checks. These results are remarkably clear-cut. We suggest a simple interpretation for the lack of response of real income to population, which is consistent with positive feed back eects from population on technology, a la Boserupian- and/or Smithian mechanisms. Recursive estimation con…rms stable parameters and identify the end of our modi…ed Malthusian regime.
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