Malignant polyps in the COVID-19 era: a population-based analysis.

Abstract

Malignant polyps represent the early development of colorectal adenocarcinoma. During 2020, there was widescale rationing of health-care resources in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular there was deferral of some colonoscopy procedures required for timely malignant polyp detection. This study sought to assess how these deferrals affected the diagnosis of malignant polyps. A population wide analysis was performed of 2079 malignant polyps, diagnosed in Queensland, Australia from 2011 to 2020. A regression analysis, with 95% prediction intervals, was produced to determine whether there was a significant impact on the number of malignant polyps diagnosed in 2020 compared to previous years. Univariate statistical analysis of patient, procedural, and pathological variables was also performed. In 2020 there were 211 malignant polyps diagnosed, which was significantly lower than was predicted by the univariate regression analysis (r2 = 0.85, 95% prediction interval: 255.07-323.91, P< 0.001). These malignant polyps were less likely to be diagnosed in a private setting (P< 0.001), and exhibited significantly less depth of submucosal invasion (P= 0.017). There was no significant difference in the management strategy (polypectomy, resection or trans-anal resection) between 2011 and 2019 and 2020. Because of the significant decrease in the number of malignant polyps, and the natural history of the disease, it is expected that there will be an increase in more advanced colorectal adenocarcinomas presenting in 2021 and beyond. This has implications for healthcare resources, particularly in light of the ongoing strain on health departments as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.