Abstract
BackgroundIn 2010, the National Malaria Control Programme with the support of Roll Back Malaria partners implemented a nationally representative Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), which assembled malaria burden and control intervention related data. The MIS data were analysed to produce a contemporary smooth map of malaria risk and evaluate the control interventions effects on parasitaemia risk after controlling for environmental/climatic, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.MethodsA Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression model was fitted on the observed parasitological prevalence data. Important environmental/climatic risk factors of parasitaemia were identified by applying Bayesian variable selection within geostatistical model. The best model was employed to predict the disease risk over a grid of 4 km2 resolution. Validation was carried out to assess model predictive performance. Various measures of control intervention coverage were derived to estimate the effects of interventions on parasitaemia risk after adjusting for environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors.ResultsNormalized difference vegetation index and rainfall were identified as important environmental/climatic predictors of malaria risk. The population adjusted risk estimates ranges from 6.46% in Lagos state to 43.33% in Borno. Interventions appear to not have important effect on malaria risk. The odds of parasitaemia appears to be on downward trend with improved socioeconomic status and living in rural areas increases the odds of testing positive to malaria parasites. Older children also have elevated risk of malaria infection.ConclusionsThe produced maps and estimates of parasitaemic children give an important synoptic view of current parasite prevalence in the country. Control activities will find it a useful tool in identifying priority areas for intervention.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0683-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
In 2010, the National Malaria Control Programme with the support of Roll Back Malaria partners implemented a nationally representative Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), which assembled malaria burden and control intervention related data
Control of malaria is hinged on key global strategies, which include prompt and effective case management, intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of malaria in pregnancy and integrated vector management (IVM) comprising the use of insecticide-treated nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and environmental management (EM)
Longlasting impregnated net (LLIN) possession was scaled up Adigun et al Malaria Journal (2015) 14:156 by mass distribution of more than 24 million LLIN in 14 states of the country as of August 2010 through a campaign supported by the partners [4]
Summary
In 2010, the National Malaria Control Programme with the support of Roll Back Malaria partners implemented a nationally representative Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), which assembled malaria burden and control intervention related data. Longlasting impregnated net (LLIN) possession was scaled up Adigun et al Malaria Journal (2015) 14:156 by mass distribution of more than 24 million LLIN in 14 states of the country as of August 2010 through a campaign supported by the partners [4]. Prior to this campaign, more than 600,000 LLINs have been distributed in Cross River State between late 2008 and early 2009 to children under the age of five by the United State Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Canadian Red Cross [4]. At the end of the same year IRS coverage was two percent in the entire country [2]
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