Abstract
A major objective of the energy transition is to reduce dependence on oil imports through structural change in energy systems leading to lower and sustained oil use. This paper outlines possible directions which can be followed under conditions of healthy economic growth to achieve a smooth transition. It also provides a framework to identify and analyse potential energy problem areas. An important conclusion is that although IEA net oil imports in 2000 could be reduced to about 15 million bbl/day, this will not be easy. To supplement market forces, effective energy policies will be necessary to bring on non-oil supplies in time, promote the replacement of oil by other fuels and restrain oil demand.
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