Making territorial scenarios for Europe

Abstract

Three paradigmatic traditions of scenario-building can be seen to exist. The model approach with its roots in American military scenarios of the 1950s, the design approach in French urban and regional development of the 1960s, and the strategic conversation approach in scenarios made in the private sector since the 1970s. In theory, these traditions can be integrated by organising the scenario project in a cyclical way. The territorial scenarios for Europe were made by combining workshops, a literature review and modelling. Thematic scenarios were produced for various themes, like demography, the economy, energy, and climate change. These thematic scenarios were combined into four integrated scenarios. The robustness of the scenarios was tested by introducing several “wild cards” and by exploring their territorial impacts throughout Europe. This applied approach succeeded in combining important strengths from the different scenario traditions. Improvements, however, could still be made.