Making sense of Arctic maritime traffic using the Polar Operational Limits Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS)

M A Stoddard,R Pelot,L Etienne,L Beveridge,M Fournier

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/34/1/012034

Abstract

Maritime traffic volume in the Arctic is growing for several reasons: climate change is resulting in less ice in extent, duration, and thickness; economic drivers are inducing growth in resource extraction traffic, community size (affecting resupply) and adventure tourism. This dynamic situation, coupled with harsh weather, variable operating conditions, remoteness, and lack of straightforward emergency response options, demand robust risk management processes. The requirements for risk management for polar ship operations are specified in the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code). The goal of the Polar Code is to provide for safe ship operations and protection of the polar environment by addressing the risk present in polar waters. Risk management is supported by evidence-based models, including threat identification (types and frequency of hazards), exposure levels, and receptor characterization. Most of the information used to perform risk management in polar waters is attained in-situ, but increasingly is being augmented with open-access remote sensing information. In this paper we focus on the use of open-access historical ice charts as an integral part of northern navigation, especially for route planning and evaluation.

Highlights

Maritime traffic in the Canadian Arctic is expected to increase in coming years as northern communities grow, tourism increases, and large resource development projects enter into operation
The Polar Code and Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) [16] and related amendments to make it mandatory under both the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) [17] and the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) [18]
We show a POLARIS scenario risk map for a particular Ice Class 1A (IA) vessel observed operating in the Canadian Arctic during week 30 of 2012

Summary

Introduction

Maritime traffic in the Canadian Arctic is expected to increase in coming years as northern communities grow, tourism increases, and large resource development projects enter into operation. Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) POLARIS provides a risk assessment framework to assess navigational safety in a given ice regime, using observed or historical ice conditions and concentration and a polar ship classification [16, 20]. The resulting POLARIS risk map will highlight areas were unusual kinematic ship behaviour may be observed due to the presence of ice. In figure 4 we show a POLARIS scenario risk map for a particular IA vessel observed operating in the Canadian Arctic during week 30 of 2012. Instead of displaying the reported ice conditions, we use our knowledge of the vessels polar classification to determine the ships RIO (and associated operational limits in ice) and visualize the result over the entire AOI. The two black boxes shown in figure 4 highlight areas along the route where erratic kinematic behaviour was observed, and expected, due to the presence of ice

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion