Making policy mixes more robust: An integrative and interdisciplinary approach for clean energy transitions

Abstract

Energy transitions from a fossil fuel-based to a clean-energy economy are required to meet international commitments on climate change mitigation. Energy-related policies play a paramount role to influence the pace of clean energy transitions. Energy policy makers must deal with operational, tactical, and strategic challenges due to an extensive range of deep uncertainties such as fuel price fluctuations, unpredictable demand behaviour, and climate change. Even though the future is uncertain, policy makers must design strategies to meet diverse long-term energy goals in line with changing societal needs. Analyses of the dynamics of policy decisions, economic development, technological innovation, social changes, and environmental impacts enable designing robust policy mixes consistent with clean energy transitions. A policy mix is considered robust, if the system of interest performs satisfactorily under a broad range of plausible futures. Thus, an integrated method is developed for organising energy policy recommendations to achieve robust policy mixes towards clean energy transitions. The method presented is an integration of energy transitions concepts, robustness-based approaches, quantitative simulation modelling techniques, and exploratory modelling and analysis.