Making Facts and Telling Furphies with Economic Modelling

Abstract

Classic post-war ‘nation-building’ project proposals were generally subjected to detailed analysis. Selected Australian case studies reveal a contrasting, post-truth approach to evaluation in more recent times, with governments ignoring or avoiding professional expertise when promoting their favoured projects and policies. A lack of formal standards for economic evaluation in Australia, such as those promulgated by Congress and presidents in the US, are a partial explanation. A concomitant hollowing-out of public service expertise in economic analysis has also occurred. In particular, public-sector agencies have lost much of their capability to properly understand and assess evaluations carried out on their behalf by commercial consultants. An effective antidote to the post-truth approach in evaluation would be the production and publication of analyses for all major government policy and project proposals, as well as the development of a standardised analytical framework and training for public servants.