Making Attrition Work: A Viable Theory of Victory for Ukraine

Abstract

As the Russia–Ukraine war enters its third year, Ukraine faces a daunting task: how to restore its military advantage. To maximise Ukraine’s chances of eventual victory, Western countries need to recognise that the driving engine of Ukraine’s effectiveness has been a destruction-centred approach. This approach has resulted in high levels of attrition and could prove an important part of the West’s and Ukraine’s theory of victory. The West enjoys the overall advantage in resources and should therefore focus on facilitating Ukraine’s ability to establish a decisive advantage in fires. The West also needs to help Ukraine scale its capacity to employ units so that it can exploit that advantage in offensive operations. The West will need to appreciate Ukrainian force structure and military culture, as well as the challenges posed by an increasingly mobilised military, which means avoiding the temptation to try to convert the Ukrainian military to a more Western, manoeuvre-centred way of fighting.