Makine Öğrenmesi Algoritmalarını Kullanarak Rüzgar Enerjisi Üretimi Tahmini

Abstract

Renewable energy becomes progressively popular in the world because renewable resources such as solar, geothermal, wind energy are clean, inexhaustible and come from natural sources. Wind energy is one of the most significant resources of renewable energy and it plays a key role in the generation of electricity. Thus, accurate wind power estimation is crucial to deal with the challenges to balance energy trading, planning, scheduling decisions and strategies of wind power generation. This study proposes a prediction model to solve a real-life problem in the renewable energy sector by accurately estimating the amount of wind energy production per hour in the next 24 hours by applying machine learning (ML) techniques using historical wind power generation data and weather forecasting reports. In the proposed approach, first, an unsupervised ML method (i.e., the K-Means clustering algorithm) is applied to group data into meaningful clusters; then, these clusters are accepted as new feature values and added to the dataset to enlarge it; finally, a supervised ML method (i.e., regression) is performed for prediction. This study compares nine supervised learning algorithms: K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, Ridge Regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, Decision Tree, and Convolutional Neural Network. The aim of this study is to investigate the success of different ML algorithms on real-world data of wind turbines and propose a methodology to benchmark various machine learning algorithms to choose the most accurate final model for wind power generation prediction.