Major trends shaping development of coal industry in the world аnd in Russia under conditions of low-carbon energy economy. Part II. Low-carbon development as a factor of decline in coal demand and its implications for coal-fired power generation prospects

Abstract

Russia ranks sixth in the world in coal production, and the share of coal exports in total supplies is more than 50%. Global coal consumption in 2020 amounted to 7.5 billion tons, which is 4.2% less than in 2019. In the short term, given high gas prices, coal demand in EU countries may increase slightly in the coming years, but by 2025, according to forecasts, it will decrease by 5% compared to 2020 levels. In the long term, in accordance with the planned decarbonization of the economy, as well as the need to implement the Paris climate agreement, coal consumption in the world will fall. The greatest drop in the rate of coal consumption will be typical for the EU countries, in which coal will be “accelerated” to be replaced by natural gas, renewable energy sources and hydrogen. Asian countries have also begun to actively introduce solar and wind power plants, lagging behind in terms of their development by 4–5 years. During the transition period, until they reach their full capacity, coal energy will still develop, however, the rates of production, consumption and export of coal will gradually decrease, and after 2030 they will significantly accelerate. The Russian coal industry is a critical sector of economy. The industry provides 200–300 thousand jobs, contributes greatly to GDP of the country, and is an urban element in many regions. Being heavily dependent on the global energy export market, Russian coal miners need to adequately assess the possibilities of their further development in the context of the transition to low-carbon energy.