Abstract
The world’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The decelerating growth is mainly attributable to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. However, there are substantial variations in the future trends of populations across regions and countries, with sub-Saharan African countries being projected to have most of the increase. Population momentum plays an important role in determining the future population growth in many countries and areas where fertility is in a rapid transition. With declines in fertility, the world’s population is unprecedentedly aging, and the numbers of households with smaller sizes are growing. International migration is also on the rise since the beginning of this century. The world’s population is also urbanizing due to increased internal rural to urban migration. Nevertheless, there are uncertainties in future population growth, not only because there are uncertainties in the future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, but also because there are many other factors that could affect these trajectories. International consensus on climate change and ecosystem protections may trigger population control policies, and the ongoing pandemic is likely to have some impact on mortality, migration, or even fertility.
Highlights
The future trend of a population is an outcome of the interactive dynamics between its existing age structure and its future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration
We mainly rely on the estimates and projections of the 2019 Revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP 2019) produced by the United Nations Population Division [1] to focus on 201 countries and areas with 90,000 inhabitants or more in mid-2020
Many sub-Saharan African countries are projected to have much faster growth than countries in other regions of the world — because many sub-Saharan African countries still have high fertility rates and reductions in fertility have been stalling in recent years
Summary
Summary The world’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The decelerating growth is mainly attributable to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. The world’s population is unprecedentedly aging, and the numbers of households with smaller sizes are growing. The world’s population is urbanizing due to increased internal rural to urban migration. There are uncertainties in future population growth, because there are uncertainties in the future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, and because there are many other factors that could affect these trajectories. The future trend of a population is an outcome of the interactive dynamics between its existing age structure and its future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. This article reviews the main features of recent and future trends in population growth for the world, major regions, and selected countries. We mainly rely on the estimates and projections of the 2019 Revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP 2019) produced by the United Nations Population Division [1] to focus on 201 countries and areas with 90,000 inhabitants or more in mid-2020
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