Major League Draft WARs: An Analysis of Wins Above Replacement in Player Selection

Abstract

Major League Baseball (MLB) teams have 20 rounds to select players with projectable ability to compete at the MLB level. In this exploratory study, players were evaluated for differences in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) related to draft round, first round pick, educational designation, and by team. It was hypothesized WAR differences exist by round, pick number, educational designation and by team. From 2005–2015, 1,623 players were examined to determine population differences owed to draft selection. First round draftees had greater average career WAR compared to Rounds 2 to 20. Collectively, the first five picks had greater WAR versus picks grouped 16 through 30. High school (HS) draft picks were selected in earlier rounds versus collegiate athletes and HS hitters displayed more WAR in first round versus 4-year college pitchers. WAR outcomes in the first 15 picks offer more success with greater performance of HS hitters versus 4-year college pitchers. These trends may influence the current landscape of scouting and draft selection in the new draft format that has reduced player selection from 40 to 20 rounds.