Major droughts in England and Wales, 1800–2006

Abstract

The UK’s vulnerability to drought was high-lighted in 2006 as large parts of southernBritain coped with the impacts of twosuccessive dry winter/spring periods,followed by a hot and relatively dry summer.Particularly arid conditions during thesummers of 2006, 2003, 1995 and 1990 havereinforced the public perception thatdroughts are generally associated with hot,dry summers. Rising temperatures havesimilarly fuelled concern that droughts arebecoming more frequent. Support for sucha tendency may be found in the UK ClimateImpacts Programme (UKCIP) scenarios(UKWIR, 2003), which indicate an increasedlikelihood of wetter winters and more aridsummers in a warmer world. The UK climate,however, is naturally very variable and indi-vidual drought clusters can provide only avery limited insight into possible futuretrends. Importantly, in relation to waterresources, most of our reservoirs are refilledand groundwater storage replenished overthe November–April period when evapora-tion losses are modest. Deficiencies in win-ter and early spring rainfall can therefore becritical in creating subsequent water supplyand environmental stress. This is particularlytrue in the English Lowlands, where ground-water is the principal supply source andspring outflows sustain many rivers andwetlands throughout the summer andautumn.In an attempt to place recent droughtconditions into a wider historical perspec-tive, this study uses hydrological and docu-mentary evidence to extend the timeframewithin which drought episodes can be iden-tified and characterized. The magnitude andimpact of major drought episodes inEngland and Wales since 1800 are assessedand consideration is given to how droughtvulnerability has changed over the last 200years. Particular emphasis is placed onlonger term multi-season droughts – thosecapable of causing significant waterresources and environmental stress.