Major current and future gaps of Brazilian reserves to protect Neotropical savanna birds

Abstract

We tested the prediction that climate-driven changes might alter bird species composition in reserves of the Cerrado region of Brazil. First, we modelled the current distributions and the potential future projections of 38 endemic or rare bird species. We used eight modelling techniques within the BIOMOD computational framework in an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach a consensus scenario. Then we compared current and future (2046–2060) distributions under different scenarios (reserve size and bird dispersal) with the current Brazilian reserve system to assess the adequacy of protection (representation) of each species and detect gaps in their protection. Finally, to identify areas with high probability of occurrence of several species, we calculated cumulative climatic suitability of all 38 species for both current and future scenarios. None of the 38 species is covered under any current or future scenarios, revealing that the current reserve system is highly inefficient in conserving the analyzed bird species. The implementation of new reserves to cover species in current and future climate scenarios is recommended in areas in the south-eastern part of the Cerrado region and in the mountains of east Brazil. Due to the already high land use of the southeast region of the Cerrado, the application of non-traditional conservation measures should be evaluated.