Maize yield prediction and condition monitoring at the sub-county scale in Kenya: synthesis of remote sensing information and crop modeling

Abstract

Agricultural production assessments are crucial for formulating strategies for closing yield gaps and enhancing production efficiencies. While in situ crop yield measurements can provide valuable and accurate information, such approaches are costly and lack scalability for large-scale assessments. Therefore, crop modeling and remote sensing (RS) technologies are essential for assessing crop conditions and predicting yields at larger scales. In this study, we combined RS and a crop growth model to assess phenology, evapotranspiration (ET), and yield dynamics at grid and sub-county scales in Kenya. We synthesized RS information from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Water Productivity Open-access portal (WaPOR) to retrieve sowing date information for driving the model simulations. The findings showed that grid-scale management information and progressive crop growth could be accurately derived, reducing the model output uncertainties. Performance assessment of the modeled phenology yielded satisfactory accuracies at the sub-county scale during two representative seasons. The agreement between the simulated ET and yield was improved with the combined RS-crop model approach relative to the crop model only, demonstrating the value of additional large-scale RS information. The proposed approach supports crop yield estimation in data-scarce environments and provides valuable insights for agricultural resource management enabling countermeasures, especially when shortages are perceived in advance, thus enhancing agricultural production.