Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030

Jon Bokrantz,Anders Skoogh,Cecilia Berlin,Johan Stahre

doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.06.010

Jon Bokrantz, Anders Skoogh + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.06.010

Copy DOI

Abstract

Despite extensive research on future manufacturing and the forthcoming fourth industrial revolution (implying extensive digitalisation), there is a lack of understanding regarding the specific changes that can be expected for maintenance organisations. Therefore, developing scenarios for future maintenance is needed to define long-term strategies for the realisation of digitalised manufacturing. This empirical Delphi-based scenario planning study is the first within the maintenance realm, examining a total of 34 projections about potential changes to the internal and external environment of maintenance organisations, considering both hard (technological) and soft (social) dimensions. The paper describes a probable future of maintenance organisations in digitalised manufacturing in the year 2030, based on an extensive three-round Delphi survey with 25 maintenance experts at strategic level from the largest companies within the Swedish manufacturing industry. In particular, the study contributes with development of probable as well as wildcard scenarios for future maintenance. This includes e.g. advancement of data analytics, increased emphasis on education and training, novel principles for maintenance planning with a systems perspective, and stronger environmental legislation and standards. The scenarios may serve as direct input to strategic development in industrial maintenance organisations and are expected to substantially improve preparedness to the changes brought by digitalised manufacturing.

Highlights

The industrialised world is facing a fourth revolution through the realisation of digitalised manufacturing
Due to the apparent gap regarding the future of maintenance organisations, the high degree of uncertainty, and the magnitude of the technological discontinuity that is digitalised manufacturing, this study builds upon the long tradition and extensive research practices within scenario planning to contribute with systematic development of expert opinion consensus in an area that is essential for the realisation of digitalised manufacturing
Seven dominant themes are highly likely to influence the internal environment of maintenance organisations: data analytics, interoperable information systems, big data management, emphasis on education and training, fact-based maintenance planning, new smart work procedures, and maintenance planning with a systems perspective

Summary

Introduction

The industrialised world is facing a fourth revolution through the realisation of digitalised manufacturing This revolution, commonly triggered by the German initiative “Industrie 4.0” (Kagermann et al, 2013), builds upon computer science; information and communication technologies; and manufacturing science and technology to develop future manufacturing systems with three main characteristics: intelligent information acquisition; connectivity between system elements; and responsiveness to internal and external changes (Monostori et al, 2016). Examples of external changes are the spurring of new market players, services, and business models (McKinsey and Company, 2015; The Boston Consulting Group, 2015; Roland Berger, 2015; Cisco, 2015; Capgemini Consulting, 2015), and issues with legislation, liability, and privacy of industrial data that puts pressure on re-inventing today's legal systems (DG Connect & EFFRA, 2015; PwC, 2015; Kagermann et al, 2013)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion