Abstract
The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence was characterized by two main events: 24 August, Mw 6, and 30 October, Mw 6.5. We carried out high-resolution field sampling and DInSAR analysis of the coseismic and intra-sequence ground deformations along the Mt Vettore-Mt Bove causative fault (VBF). We found that during the intra-sequence period (24 August–30 October), the ground experienced some deformations whose final patterns seemed to be retraced and amplified by the following mainshock. We interpreted that (i) immediately after the 24 August earthquake, the deformation observed in the southern VBF expanded northwards and westwards over a Length of Deforming Ground (LDG) ranging between 28.7 and 36.3 km, and (ii) it extended to the whole portion of the hanging wall that was later affected by mainshock coseismic deformation. Assuming the LDG to be an indicator for an expected (=coseismic) surface rupture length and using known scaling functions, we obtained 6.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.7 for a possible incoming earthquake, which is consistent with the mainshock magnitude. We suggest that the evolution of the ground deformations after a significant seismic event might provide insights on the occurrence of new earthquakes with magnitudes comparable to or larger than the former.
Highlights
On 24 August 2016, at 01:36:32 UTC, a Mw 6.0 earthquake originated at a depth of approximately8 km underneath the relay zone between the overlapping Mt Vettore-Mt Bove normal fault (VBF) and the Mt Gorzano Fault (GF) in the Central Apennines of Italy (Figure 1)
Aperture Radar (DInSAR) measurements, which were integrated with structural geological data, suggest a seismogenic scenario characterized by a bilateral rupture propagating on the VBF and GF
Comparing the along-fault extent of the IDG with the distribution of the coseismic ruptures observed after the 30 October mainshock [4,12], we suggest the intra-sequence Length of the Deforming Ground (LDG) is a good proxy for the expected coseismic Surface Rupture Length (i.e., LDG ≈ SRL), which is known to correlate with the maximum expected earthquake magnitude
Summary
On 24 August 2016, at 01:36:32 UTC, a Mw 6.0 earthquake originated at a depth of approximately. 8 km underneath the relay zone between the overlapping Mt Vettore-Mt Bove normal fault (VBF) and the Mt Gorzano Fault (GF) in the Central Apennines of Italy (Figure 1). The severe earthquake destroyed the town of Amatrice and many other villages, killing 299 people [1,2,3]. Aperture Radar (DInSAR) measurements, which were integrated with structural geological data, suggest a seismogenic scenario characterized by a bilateral rupture propagating on the VBF and GF planes, conjoined at the base [1,2]. No clear evidence of surface faulting was observed along the GF or along the northern part of the VBF, i.e., in the Mt Bove-Ussita area
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