Main Drivers for Maritime Cluster and Shipping in the Baltic Sea

T. Notteboom,Riitta Pöntynen,Anne Erkkilä-Välimäki,H. Maria Gregorio Pina Calado,E. Czermánski,C. Peeters,Hanna Nieminen

doi:10.1051/shsconf/20185801024

Abstract

One of the main aims of Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is to observe and determine factors affecting the development of various future sea uses. As a part of the transboundary MSP research done in the Maritime Spatial Planning for Sustainable Blue Economies (Plan4Blue) project, drivers for the creation of alternative scenarios for Blue Economy in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea have been defined. The Blue Economic sectors analysed were energy, the maritime cluster, maritime and coastal tourism, the blue bioeconomy and subsea resources. The drivers affecting the development of blue economy sectors by the year 2050 were identified by experts through Delphi-surveys and workshops. First, the drivers were explored using the PESTEL-classification: political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal drivers. The main drivers were then analysed and presented in futures tables. The results of this analysis are discussed from the viewpoint of the maritime cluster and shipping. The most important shipping drivers identified are transnational in nature: global economic trends and environmental policies, which connect national and regional MSP with the global scale. Driver analysis supports the identification of the sector’s needs in the context of MSP. Challenges encountered in the process are highlighted in this text.

Highlights

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) processes inherently include the envisioning of future developments in marine and coastal areas [1]
In the Tallinn workshop, the working groups were designed to work from the point of view of the different blue economy sectors, whereas in Helsinki, the groups worked from the point of view of the blue economy as a whole
One of the themes of the Delphi-questionnaire included the assessment of the drivers according to the PESTEL classification: an estimation of the major political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal drivers affecting the development of the blue economy by the year 2050

Summary

Introduction

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) processes inherently include the envisioning of future developments in marine and coastal areas [1]. The consideration of the driving forces, i.e. drivers, is a part of the examination of the alternative future scenarios concerning the regional blue economy in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea (Fig. 1). As representatives of different MSP stakeholders, have extensive knowledge on the driving forces within their field of expertise They play a crucial role in defining the drivers of regional change [3, 7]. The area has large ports with lively passenger and cargo traffic, including increasing oil transport traffic All this increases the risks associated with maritime transports in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea [10]. Alternative future scenarios are produced based on the quantitative and qualitative data produced in the project. [12]

Defining Blue Economy Sectors

Delphi panel and workshops

The classification and mapping of the drivers

Identification of drivers for the blue economy

Drivers of the maritime cluster

Challenges of the process of identifying drivers

Main conclusions

19. Ruskule et al Pan‐Baltic stakeholders’ dialogue on MSP