Abstract
The magnitude and trend of temperature and rainfall extremes as indicators of climate variability and change were investigated in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of Kenya using in-situ measurements and gridded climate proxy datasets, and analysed using the Gaussian-Kernel analysis and the Mann-Kendall statistics. The results show that the maximum and minimum temperatures have been increasing, with warmer temperatures being experienced mostly at night time. The average change in the mean maximum and minimum seasonal surface air temperature for the region were 0.74°C and 0.60°C, respectively between the 1961-1990 and 1991-2013 periods. Decreasing but statistically insignificant trends in the seasonal rainfall were noted in the area, but with mixed patterns in variability. The March-April-May rainfall season indicated the highest decrease in the seasonal rainfall amounts. The southern parts of the region had a decreasing trend in rainfall that was greater than that of the northern areas. The results of this study are expected to support sustainable pastoralism system prevalent with the local communities in the ASALs.
Highlights
Variability and changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall patterns have been experienced in many parts of the world including Eastern Africa [1] [2] [3]
The results showed that temperatures have been increasing steadily over the ASAL region of Northern Kenya since 1961 at all locations considered with different magnitudes represented by tau (Table 2)
The Turkana region was observed to have the highest increasing trend in all the seasons for surface maximum and minimum air temperature while the Isiolo region on average had the lowest increasing trend. This increase in temperature may lead to reduced soil moisture content as temperature and soil moisture are inversely related [38] which in turn affects forage production, negatively affecting livestock farming, which is the main livelihood in the ASALs of Kenya
Summary
Variability and changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall patterns have been experienced in many parts of the world including Eastern Africa [1] [2] [3]. In Kenya, over 80% of the country is classified as Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), with most of these located in the northern parts of the county bordering Southern Ethiopia and Eastern Somalia. Livestock agriculture is a key source of livelihood for the rural population, where about 75% of the livestock in Kenya are found [6] [7] [8] [9]
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