Magnitude transition probability and casual dependence of local earthquakes

Abstract

Even though they contribute far less to the total worldwide death toll and damage than their more powerful counterparts, Aswan earthquakes, which have low overall seismicity and magnitudes between 3.0 and 5.6, may be the main source of seismic risk and hazard in the Aswan region. With such earthquakes’ potential to cause significant concern in several parts of the world, it is important to study of the casual dependence between the occurrences of earthquake magnitudes in Aswan area. The probabilistic dependence is different from the casual dependence. Earthquakes’ probabilistic reliance is not a prerequisite nor an adequate means of establishing a causal connection. Therefore, it is crucial to look at the accidental dependency of earthquake magnitude in the Aswan region. For this purpose, and to verify the stability of the findings, we considered the seismic data from 1980 to 2002 in Aswan area. The statistical and probabilistic methods might be used to examine the features of the dependency between earthquake magnitudes. The probability of both the absolute and conditional earthquake magnitudes, as determined by counting the consecutive observations of earthquake magnitude directly. This article investigates empirically the magnitude transition probability and casual dependence of earthquake magnitude events in Aswan area. The data for 286 consecutive earthquakes felt in the Aswan area with a magnitude of 3.0 or above are utilized in the probability calculations to examine the dependency of earthquake magnitudes on chance. The results show that the magnitudes of subsequent earthquakes in the Aswan area are causally related to one another. Additionally, the results of this study imply that the order in which earthquakes occur in the Aswan region may be governed by some regular connection.