Abstract

We analyze the correlation between the stock and bond markets in Germany and the US. We use a standard no-arbitrage affine model to decompose the correlation between these two assets into its main drivers. The correlation between bond yields and stock returns is a key determinant of asset allocation. Our results show that the correlation is primarily influenced by the uncertainty about inflation and real interest rates as well as by co-movement between inflation, real interest rates and dividend growth. Shocks to inflation, real interest rates and dividend growth can explain the correlation’s temporary deviation from its long-term dynamics.

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