Abstract
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology is used to assess possible sources of macroeconomic variability in the New Zealand economy. As a test of robustness, two alternative business cycle filters are used to remove stochastic trends from integrated time series data. Regardless of the way in which cyclical fluctuations are empirically measured, the investigation attributes a considerable share of variability in the New Zealand macroeconomy to foreign sector shocks, particularly over the longer term. Furthermore, the relative importance of the various sources of variability are found to change following the removal of nominal interest rate and other controls and the floating of the New Zealand dollar in the mid‐1980s.
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