Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint

Abstract

China has become a major player in the global economy. The analysis, based on a new and original database of Chinese macroeconomic surprises, shows the significant impact that these surprises have on equity markets worldwide, as well as on commodity prices, on the US nominal effective exchange rate and on the VIX Index. We also establish that positive Chinese macroeconomic news is associated with the expansion of global trade and industrial production. Overall, we provide evidence of the growing role of the Chinese economy as a driving force for both the real and the financial global cycle.