Macroeconomic impacts of China’s foreign exchange reserve accumulation: a vector autoregression analysis using pure-sign-restriction approach

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study employs pure-sign-restriction approach analysing the macroeconomic impacts of foreign reserve accumulation and discusses the foreign exchange sterilization behaviour of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Sign restriction analysis shows that the effects of reserve accumulation shock are initially ambiguous on all variables, but later a positive influence only on base money can be observed. With regard to sterilization intervention, the effect is significant even though it degrades gradually over time. In China, the monetary authority actively undertakes sterilization intervention in order to remove the influence of passive release of base money caused by foreign reserve accumulation.