Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Returns: An Approach of Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Food and Beverage Industry

Abstract

We examine the efficiency and efficacy of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory model in explaining stock returns in the food and beverage industry. To that end, we analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns before and during the pandemic. In this paper, we use unexpected changes in economic growth, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and crude oil price as generating factors and find that these factors have come to explain stock returns movement. Using the generalized least square (GLS) technique, we study stocks from 19 firms listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange over sixteen months from 2018 to 2021. While most significant relations are negative, some are significantly positive. The significant associations suggest that the theory is supported in that estimated expected returns depend on selected generating factors. The result also shows that investors are rational because they consider these factors as systematic risks influencing their profit. Furthermore, we find that there is a difference in stock returns before and during the pandemic, with the average being greater during the pandemic. We assume that this is due to investors’ choice to seek out safe-haven assets in order to limit their exposure to losses.