Macroeconomic factors and equity returns in Borsa İstanbul

Abstract

This paper investigates equity return exposure to various macroeconomic factors and the performance of factor betas in predicting the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. We utilize a two-step procedure to directly test the implications of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. First, we calculate monthly factor betas and then, we estimate the sensitivity of equity returns towards the factor betas. We find that (i) there exists a negative and significant relation between interest rate betas and future equity returns; (ii) the inclusion of market, book-to-market, size and momentum factor betas does not subsume the predictive power of the interest rate beta; and (iii) these results are driven by the debt-to-equity ratios of individual firms. We conclude that the financial leverage driven sensitivity of returns towards interest rates is a priced risk factor in the Turkish stock market.