Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks

Abstract

This study examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on output, prices and interest rates in Sri Lanka during the period 2003–2012. It finds a strong transmission of policy rate shocks onto the money market rates and the government securities market yields. However, banking sector interest rates exhibit a smaller and slower impact compared to money and government securities market rates. The study also finds a weak policy interest rate transmission onto the real sector and prices. The direction of relationships between variables and policy shocks is in conformity with the existing theoretical and empirical priors. The existence of a large informal economy, volatile excess market liquidity, shallowness of financial markets, relatively less flexible interest rates on deposit and loan products, and fiscal accommodation by monetary policy at times are identified as reasons for weak transmission.