Macroeconomic dynamics and the evolution of formal manufacturing employment (2003–2016)

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the evolution of the formal employment in the sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry between 2003 and 2016. The period has been divided into three according to the moment of economic cycle: the moment of greatest GDP growth between 2003 and 2008 (i), going through the economic slowdown period, between 2008 and 2013 (ii), until the phase of strong setback between 2013 and 2016 (iii). There was an intense growth of formal employment in the Brazilian economy between 2003 and 2013, greater than GDP growth. This performance showed very favorable rates until 2008 and then cooled down, but the indicators of formal employment, despite the slowdown in growth rate, this period showed employment rates well beyond the evolution of GDP. After 2013, this scenario has reversed strongly, both GDP and formal employment indicators showed negative results. The manufacturing industry, has demonstrated, since then, significant reduction of added-value goods and employment levels. The article questions the great difficulty of the Brazilian economy to sustain higher rates of GDP in times of worsening of the international scenario, especially in relation to industrial GDP and industrial employment.